CustodyStress
Archive › Halving cycles › Halving Cycle 2 (2013–2016)
Part of the CustodyStress archive of observed Bitcoin custody incidents

Halving Cycle 2 (2013–2016)

The second halving cycle coincides with the growth of exchanges as primary custody infrastructure. Mt. Gox collapsed in 2014 and vendor lockout became a dominant stress pattern. Passphrase-related losses increased as early hardware wallets and encrypted wallets became more common. The blocked rate dropped to 58% as exchange-based constrained outcomes added a new category.

206 cases from this period are included in this archive. Exchange and custodial custody failures account for 47% of cases. 58% of determinate cases resulted in a blocked outcome.

68
Blocked
29
Constrained
20
Survived
89
Indeterminate

83% of determinate cases resulted in blocked or constrained access.

206 observed cases
Blocked
68 (33%)
Constrained
29 (14%)
Survived
20 (10%)
Indeterminate
89 (43%)
Bitcoin-Qt Wallet Corruption After Power Loss — Salvage Command Failed to Recover
Software wallet
Blocked 2014
In 2014, a Bitcoin holder stored their funds in a wallet.dat file managed by Bitcoin-Qt on a Windows machine with an SSD. The wallet had been dormant for approx
Electrum Wallet Recovery After Seed Backup Loss: electrum.dat File Decryption
Software wallet
Survived 2014
In April 2014, a BitcoinTalk forum user (DarkHyudrA) experienced custody access failure after formatting their personal computer without preserving a backup cop
0.3 BTC Lost When Android Bitcoin Wallets Factory Reset Without Backup
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2014
In July 2014, a BitcoinTalk forum user (ejinte) reported transferring 0.3 BTC to family members—his mother and sister—by helping them download and set up an And
Mt. Gox Exchange Collapse: 850,000 BTC Lost, 127,000 Creditors, 10-Year Recovery
Exchange custody
Constrained 2014
Mt. Gox operated as the world's primary Bitcoin exchange from 2006 onward, handling over 70% of global Bitcoin transaction volume at its peak. The platform func
MintPal Exchange Bankruptcy and 3,894 BTC Theft by Ryan Kennedy
Exchange custody
Blocked 2014
MintPal was an altcoin exchange that suffered a hack of 8 million Vericoin in July 2014. The exchange was subsequently acquired by Ryan Kennedy, who operated un
Mt. Gox Exchange Collapse: Operator Theft and 650,000 Lost Customer Bitcoin
Exchange custody
Blocked 2014
Mt. Gox operated as the dominant Bitcoin-to-fiat exchange from 2010 to 2014, handling approximately 70% of global Bitcoin trading volume at its peak. The platfo
Forgotten Encryption Passphrase Blocks Access to 10+ BTC in Bitcoin Core Wallet
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2014
In December 2014, a BitcoinTalk user identifying as casperround publicly sought help recovering access to an encrypted Bitcoin Core wallet containing over 10 BT
Forgotten Password on Blockchain.info: 0.22 BTC Access Lost, Brute-Force Recovery Attempted
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2014
In October 2014, a BitcoinTalk forum user reported that their friend had become locked out of a blockchain.info wallet containing 0.22 BTC after forgetting the
James Howell's Hard Drive: 8,000 Bitcoin Lost in Welsh Landfill
Hardware wallet (single key)
Blocked 2014
James Howell, a British-based individual, accidentally discarded a hard drive containing private keys to approximately 8,000 Bitcoin while cleaning his office a
FXBTC Shanghai Exchange Premature Closure Blocks Customer Withdrawals
Exchange custody
Blocked 2014
FXBTC was a Shanghai-based cryptocurrency exchange operating during China's early Bitcoin trading boom. In early May 2014, following escalating regulatory press
Passphrase unavailable — Bitcoin-Qt (2013)
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2013
In November 2013, BitcoinTalk user eric89 reported a custody failure involving a Litecoin wallet mined in April 2013. The user had encrypted the wallet using Li
Armory Wallet Lost via VirtualBox Snapshot Rollback—Binary Recovery Attempt
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2013
In October 2013, a BitcoinTalk user known as HowlingMad lost access to 6.59159344 BTC stored in Armory, a then-leading Bitcoin wallet application running on Win
Mt. Gox Withdrawal Crisis: levino's 347-Page Thread Documents SEPA Delays (April 2013)
Exchange custody
Constrained 2013
On April 18, 2013, BitcoinTalk user levino initiated a withdrawal of Euro proceeds from Mt. Gox, the world's largest Bitcoin exchange at that time. After 14 day
Encrypted Wallet Recovery After Accidental Partition Deletion (2013)
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2013
On July 17, 2013, a Bitcoin holder identified as Praxis posted to a cryptocurrency forum after losing access to multiple wallet files stored in hidden Linux dir
1,000 BTC Permanently Lost After Brother Deletes wallet.dat From Shared Dropbox Folder
Software wallet
Blocked 2013
In 2017, Hacker News user illumin8 disclosed a permanent loss of 1,000 BTC resulting from a wallet file deletion in a shared Dropbox folder. The Bitcoin wallet
2013 Electrum Wallet File Blocked by Version Incompatibility
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2013
SirKhaal, a Bitcoin holder from the early mining era, retained an Electrum wallet file (electrum.dat) from 2013 along with its original passphrase. When attempt
Passphrase unavailable — software wallet (2013)
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2013
On February 5, 2014, BitcoinTalk user repukken posted in the encrypted wallet recovery thread seeking help to brute-force access to a Dogecoin wallet after forg
Bitcoin-Qt 0.8.0-beta Wallet Corruption on OS X Mountain Lion — Unrecovered After Five Months
Software wallet
Blocked 2013
In late April 2013, jordan.dev, a Bitcoin-Qt user on macOS Mountain Lion 10.8.3, encountered a crash (EXC_BAD_ACCESS/SIGBUS) when launching Bitcoin-Qt 0.8.0-bet
Blockchain.info Hosted Wallet Lockout: Decryption Error and Recovery via Desktop Import
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2013
In March 2013, a Blockchain.info user ('key2') encountered a critical access failure on the platform's hosted wallet service shortly after their first Bitcoin p
BTC Guild Miner's Lost Self-Custody Wallet: 0.05 BTC Inaccessible Without Seed or Backup File
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2013
In 2013–2014, user haihong8787 mined Bitcoin using a graphics card on the BTC Guild mining pool (user ID 97249). The pool distributed mining rewards directly to
James Howell's 8,000 Bitcoin Hard Drive: Landfill Loss Without Backup
Software wallet
Blocked 2013
James Howell, a computer professional based in Wales, accumulated approximately 8,000 Bitcoin during the early mining era through a combination of mining and ac
43.6 BTC Recovered via RoboForm RNG Reverse-Engineering After TrueCrypt Corruption
Software wallet
Survived 2013
Michael, a European Bitcoin holder, generated and secured a 20-character password using RoboForm in April 2013 and transferred 43.6 BTC into a software wallet.
Dogecoin Wallet Passphrase Mismatch: 50,000 DOGE Inaccessible Despite Documentation
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2013
On December 27, 2013, a BitcoinTalk user named Alohaboy posted seeking help recovering access to a Dogecoin wallet. The user had documented their passphrase ('d
Armory Wallet Synchronization Failure: Access Restored After Software Upgrade
Software wallet
Survived 2013
In October 2013, a BitcoinTalk user holding approximately 0.1008 BTC in an encrypted Armory wallet encountered a critical access failure. The user possessed bot
Bitfloor Exchange Closure March 2013: Banking Relationship Failure After Prior Hack
Exchange custody
Constrained 2013
Bitfloor, a US-based Bitcoin exchange, announced permanent closure on March 17, 2013, after its banking partner terminated the exchange's account without explan
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Halving cycles
Terms guide
Survived
Access remained possible under the reported conditions.
Constrained
Access remained possible, but only with delay, dependence, or significant difficulty.
Blocked
Access was not possible under the reported conditions.
Indeterminate
There was not enough information to determine the outcome.
Survivability
The degree to which a custody system maintains the possibility of authorized recovery under stress.
Archive inclusion criteria

This archive documents cases where a legitimate owner, heir, or authorized party encountered barriers accessing or recovering Bitcoin due to a failure in the custody arrangement. The central question for inclusion is: did the custody structure fail a legitimate access or recovery attempt?

A case must satisfy all three of the following to be included:

  1. Legitimate access attempt. The person attempting to access or recover the Bitcoin was the owner, a designated heir, an executor, a legal authority, or another party with a legitimate claim — not a thief, attacker, or unauthorized third party.
  2. Custody structure failure. The failure was caused by a property of the custody arrangement — missing credentials, structural dependencies, documentation gaps, knowledge concentration, legal barriers, or institutional constraints — not market conditions, individual-level fraud or theft, or protocol-level issues. Platform-level failures that block legitimate user access are in scope regardless of their cause.
  3. Documentable outcome or access constraint. The case must have a stated or inferable outcome: access blocked, access constrained, access delayed, or access eventually achieved through a recovery path. Cases with entirely unknown outcomes are included only where the structural failure is documented and the constraint is unambiguous.
  • Owner death or incapacity — Bitcoin held in self-custody that becomes inaccessible to heirs or designated parties because credentials, documentation, or operational knowledge were not transferred
  • Passphrase loss — BIP39 passphrase forgotten or unavailable, blocking access to a funded wallet even where the seed phrase is present
  • Seed phrase or wallet backup unavailable — no independent recovery path existed or the backup was destroyed, lost, or never created
  • Device loss without independent backup — hardware wallet, phone, or computer lost or destroyed with no recovery path outside the device
  • Documentation absent or ambiguous — heirs or executors cannot determine that Bitcoin exists, which wallet holds it, or how to access it
  • Knowledge concentration — only one person knew the procedure, passphrase, or access method; that person is dead, incapacitated, or unreachable
  • Multisig quorum failure — a threshold signature arrangement cannot be completed because signers are unavailable, uncooperative, incapacitated, or have lost their keys
  • Legal authority / access mismatch — a court order, probate ruling, or power of attorney establishes legal entitlement but provides no technical path to access
  • Institutional custody barrier — exchange or platform hacks, insolvency, regulatory seizure, or operational failure that caused a access constraint or failure for legitimate users, whether temporary, prolonged, or permanent. The failure of the custodian to remain available or solvent is itself the in-scope event.
  • Forced relocation or geographic constraint — physical access to a device or location required for recovery is blocked by displacement, border restrictions, or political circumstances
  • Coercion — the holder was compelled under threat to transfer Bitcoin or disclose credentials during an access event
  • Hidden asset discovery — heirs or executors locate a wallet or account but cannot access it due to missing credentials or operational knowledge
  • Market losses, investment losses, yield scheme losses, or Ponzi scheme losses
  • Hacks or theft targeting an individual's personal security (phishing, SIM swap, social engineering, malware) where the custody architecture itself did not fail
  • Unauthorized transfers where the holder's custody system was not the cause of the failure
  • Ordinary transaction mistakes — wrong-address sends, fee errors, mistaken amounts
  • Protocol-level failures — cryptographic vulnerabilities, consensus bugs, firmware integrity failures
  • Deliberate burns or tribute burns
  • Cases where the stated loss is unverifiable and no structural custody failure is described

Cases are drawn from public sources including forum posts, news reporting, court documents, academic research, and direct submissions. Each case is reviewed against the inclusion criteria above before publication. Source material is retained and available on request for documented cases.

The archive is observational and descriptive. It does not attempt to document all Bitcoin custody failures — only those meeting the criteria above with sufficient documentation to describe the structural failure and its outcome.