CustodyStress
Archive › Halving cycles › Halving Cycle 2 (2013–2016)
Part of the CustodyStress archive of observed Bitcoin custody incidents

Halving Cycle 2 (2013–2016)

The second halving cycle coincides with the growth of exchanges as primary custody infrastructure. Mt. Gox collapsed in 2014 and vendor lockout became a dominant stress pattern. Passphrase-related losses increased as early hardware wallets and encrypted wallets became more common. The blocked rate dropped to 58% as exchange-based constrained outcomes added a new category.

206 cases from this period are included in this archive. Exchange and custodial custody failures account for 47% of cases. 58% of determinate cases resulted in a blocked outcome.

68
Blocked
29
Constrained
20
Survived
89
Indeterminate

83% of determinate cases resulted in blocked or constrained access.

206 observed cases
Blocked
68 (33%)
Constrained
29 (14%)
Survived
20 (10%)
Indeterminate
89 (43%)
BTER Cold Wallet Compromise: 7,170 BTC Stolen, Exchange Suspended (February 2015)
Exchange custody
Blocked 2015
BTER, a Chinese cryptocurrency exchange, suffered a critical custody failure in February 2015 when its cold wallet—the repository for user Bitcoin deposits and
CAVIRTEX Closure and Withdrawal Delays: February–March 2015
Exchange custody
Constrained 2015
CAVIRTEX, a Canadian Bitcoin exchange, announced its closure on February 17, 2015, following discovery of a database compromise involving older user information
Electrum Wallet Password Loss Without Seed Phrase Backup
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2015
In November 2015, a BitcoinTalk user created a password-protected Electrum software wallet for testing purposes and set a password they believed followed the pa
0.22 BTC Inaccessible in Electrum Watch-Only Wallet After Bitcoin Core Import Error
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2015
In October 2015, a macOS user (ginko3000) discovered they could not spend 0.22 BTC held in an Electrum wallet despite the balance being visible on screen. The w
Blockchain.info iOS Wallet: $3,600 Lost to Missing Mnemonic and Unresettable Password
Exchange custody
Blocked 2015
In September 2015, TheLoser created a Bitcoin wallet on Blockchain.info using an iOS mobile device. Unlike documented Blockchain.info workflows, the wallet crea
0.3 BTC Lost After Uninstalling Blockchain.info Desktop Wallet Without Backup
Exchange custody
Blocked 2015
In June 2015, a user identified as Williams2017 received approximately 0.3 BTC (then valued at roughly $70 USD) from an entity called 'www.instantgold.ng' to th
Forgotten Passphrase and Overwritten Wallet.dat: 0.50 BTC Permanently Lost
Software wallet
Blocked 2015
In May 2015, BitcoinTalk user grovearmada discovered they had lost access to an encrypted Bitcoin wallet containing 0.50 BTC (approximately $115–120 USD at 2015
Cryptsy November 2015: Three Frozen Withdrawals, Unresponsive Support, Hidden Insolvency
Exchange custody
Blocked 2015
In November 2015, a Cryptsy user publicly identified as Bitcointard filed detailed complaints across The Merkle, Reddit, and Bitcointalk forums describing three
Ruairi's Lost Paper Backup: €80 Bitcoin, Both Credentials on One Document
Software wallet
Blocked 2015
Ruairi purchased approximately €80 worth of Bitcoin in late 2015, driven by curiosity about the emerging technology and its associations with dark web markets.
Recovery of Dormant Blockchain.info Wallet via Legacy 20-Word Mnemonic (2017)
Exchange custody
Survived 2014
Roland808, a BitcoinTalk user, discovered a text file on their computer in March 2017 dated from 2014 containing a label 'bitcoin nmemonic' followed by 20 rando
Mt. Gox Exchange Collapse: 750,000 Bitcoin Trapped After February 2014 Withdrawal Halt
Exchange custody
Blocked 2014
Mt. Gox, the world's largest Bitcoin exchange at the time, announced a complete halt to all Bitcoin withdrawals on February 7, 2014. The exchange attributed the
Lost Blockchain.info iOS Wallet Password (2014) — Recovery Attempt via BTCRecover
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2014
In December 2021, a BitcoinTalk user identified as Quix77 disclosed loss of access to a Blockchain.info wallet created in August 2014 via the iOS Blockchain app
Forgotten Blockchain.info Password: 0.22 BTC Trapped Behind AES Encryption
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2014
On October 8, 2014, a BitcoinTalk forum user findftp described his friend's predicament: access lost to a Blockchain.info wallet containing 0.22 BTC due to a fo
MtGox Civil Rehabilitation Claims Process: Password Reset Barrier
Exchange custody
Constrained 2014
Following the MtGox collapse, Japan's civil rehabilitation framework opened a formal claims process to distribute recovered assets to affected users. However, a
Electrum Desktop Wallet: 0.7 BTC Locked by Forgotten Password, Missing Seed Phrase
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2014
Liam, a new Bitcoin user (BitcoinTalk username AbeTheCat), purchased 0.7 BTC in October 2014 and stored it in an Electrum desktop software wallet on his origina
Bitcoin-Qt Wallet Shows Zero Balance After Windows Installation on SSD
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2014
In January 2014, a Bitcoin holder experienced a system failure (repeated Blue Screen of Death) on their PC. Rather than repair the existing installation, they p
Password Safe Crash Leaves Blockchain.info Wallet Inaccessible
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2014
In January 2014, a BitcoinTalk user identified as StinkyS4L discovered that their Password Safe application had crashed, rendering all stored passwords inaccess
Paper Wallet Private Key Recovery: Reconstructing Corrupted Font-Rendered WIF
Software wallet
Survived 2014
In 2014, a Bitcoin holder generated a paper wallet using a widely available online paper wallet generator tool. The printed document contained both a public add
Electrum Seed Phrase Lost to Accidental File Deletion — Windows Recovery Attempt
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2014
In mid-2014, a user identified as Evolution created an Electrum Bitcoin wallet using Tails live operating system running inside VMware on Windows 7. The user ge
BIP38 Passphrase Recovery Service Abandonment (2014)
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2014
In July 2014, a BitcoinTalk forum user identified as houseo posted in the Services section describing a custody access failure involving a forgotten BIP38 passp
Lost Access to 2014 blockchain.info Wallets: Non-Standard Recovery Mnemonics, No Support Response
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2014
In July 2020, forum user gbola reported locating five recovery mnemonics created circa 2014 when blockchain.info was in its early operations. The user's entire
MultiBit Wallet on Stolen Laptop: Recovery Phrase Format Ambiguity Blocks Access
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2014
In 2014, mcsteely purchased Bitcoin from a Bitcoin ATM and sent it to a MultiBit wallet installed on a laptop. The device was subsequently stolen. At the time,
Electrum Wallet Access Failure: Lost Printed Seed and Empty CSV Export
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2014
In February 2014, a BitcoinTalk forum user identified as 'Howinthe?' reported the loss of access to 2 BTC acquired years earlier when the asset traded at approx
MintPal Exchange: 3,701 BTC Theft by Operator Ryan Kennedy (2014)
Exchange custody
Blocked 2014
Ryan Kennedy, operating under the alias Alex Green with a public presence in the Dogecoin community, acquired MintPal—a mid-tier altcoin exchange—in mid-2014. T
KeePass Database Corruption: 11.7 BTC Locked Behind Unrecoverable Password
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2014
In April 2014, a BitcoinTalk user reported that their cousin had lost access to 11.7 BTC held in an encrypted wallet.dat file. The cousin had generated a strong
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Halving cycles
Terms guide
Survived
Access remained possible under the reported conditions.
Constrained
Access remained possible, but only with delay, dependence, or significant difficulty.
Blocked
Access was not possible under the reported conditions.
Indeterminate
There was not enough information to determine the outcome.
Survivability
The degree to which a custody system maintains the possibility of authorized recovery under stress.
Archive inclusion criteria

This archive documents cases where a legitimate owner, heir, or authorized party encountered barriers accessing or recovering Bitcoin due to a failure in the custody arrangement. The central question for inclusion is: did the custody structure fail a legitimate access or recovery attempt?

A case must satisfy all three of the following to be included:

  1. Legitimate access attempt. The person attempting to access or recover the Bitcoin was the owner, a designated heir, an executor, a legal authority, or another party with a legitimate claim — not a thief, attacker, or unauthorized third party.
  2. Custody structure failure. The failure was caused by a property of the custody arrangement — missing credentials, structural dependencies, documentation gaps, knowledge concentration, legal barriers, or institutional constraints — not market conditions, individual-level fraud or theft, or protocol-level issues. Platform-level failures that block legitimate user access are in scope regardless of their cause.
  3. Documentable outcome or access constraint. The case must have a stated or inferable outcome: access blocked, access constrained, access delayed, or access eventually achieved through a recovery path. Cases with entirely unknown outcomes are included only where the structural failure is documented and the constraint is unambiguous.
  • Owner death or incapacity — Bitcoin held in self-custody that becomes inaccessible to heirs or designated parties because credentials, documentation, or operational knowledge were not transferred
  • Passphrase loss — BIP39 passphrase forgotten or unavailable, blocking access to a funded wallet even where the seed phrase is present
  • Seed phrase or wallet backup unavailable — no independent recovery path existed or the backup was destroyed, lost, or never created
  • Device loss without independent backup — hardware wallet, phone, or computer lost or destroyed with no recovery path outside the device
  • Documentation absent or ambiguous — heirs or executors cannot determine that Bitcoin exists, which wallet holds it, or how to access it
  • Knowledge concentration — only one person knew the procedure, passphrase, or access method; that person is dead, incapacitated, or unreachable
  • Multisig quorum failure — a threshold signature arrangement cannot be completed because signers are unavailable, uncooperative, incapacitated, or have lost their keys
  • Legal authority / access mismatch — a court order, probate ruling, or power of attorney establishes legal entitlement but provides no technical path to access
  • Institutional custody barrier — exchange or platform hacks, insolvency, regulatory seizure, or operational failure that caused a access constraint or failure for legitimate users, whether temporary, prolonged, or permanent. The failure of the custodian to remain available or solvent is itself the in-scope event.
  • Forced relocation or geographic constraint — physical access to a device or location required for recovery is blocked by displacement, border restrictions, or political circumstances
  • Coercion — the holder was compelled under threat to transfer Bitcoin or disclose credentials during an access event
  • Hidden asset discovery — heirs or executors locate a wallet or account but cannot access it due to missing credentials or operational knowledge
  • Market losses, investment losses, yield scheme losses, or Ponzi scheme losses
  • Hacks or theft targeting an individual's personal security (phishing, SIM swap, social engineering, malware) where the custody architecture itself did not fail
  • Unauthorized transfers where the holder's custody system was not the cause of the failure
  • Ordinary transaction mistakes — wrong-address sends, fee errors, mistaken amounts
  • Protocol-level failures — cryptographic vulnerabilities, consensus bugs, firmware integrity failures
  • Deliberate burns or tribute burns
  • Cases where the stated loss is unverifiable and no structural custody failure is described

Cases are drawn from public sources including forum posts, news reporting, court documents, academic research, and direct submissions. Each case is reviewed against the inclusion criteria above before publication. Source material is retained and available on request for documented cases.

The archive is observational and descriptive. It does not attempt to document all Bitcoin custody failures — only those meeting the criteria above with sufficient documentation to describe the structural failure and its outcome.

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