CustodyStress
Archive › Statistics
Part of the CustodyStress archive of observed Bitcoin custody incidents

Bitcoin Custody Incident Archive Statistics

Aggregate statistics across 846 documented custody incidents where legitimate owners, heirs, or authorised parties encountered barriers accessing Bitcoin.

The archive documents custody survivability failures. It does not attempt to document all Bitcoin losses, hacks, thefts, or scams.

This page summarizes observed outcomes across documented cases in this archive.

How often do Bitcoin custody incidents result in permanent loss? Based on 484 documented cases with known outcomes in this archive, 68% ended in blocked access — meaning the owner, heir, or authorised party was unable to recover the funds under the conditions documented. A further 42.8% of all cases are classified as indeterminate, meaning public documentation was insufficient to determine whether access was ultimately restored. These figures describe outcomes within documented incidents in this archive and do not represent the probability of a given outcome in any individual case.
Browse all archive sections — situations, patterns, dependencies, events →
Outcome distribution in the Bitcoin Custody Incident Archive

484 cases with known outcome

68%
14%
18%
Blocked — 330 cases (68%) Constrained — 68 cases (14%) Survived — 86 cases (18%)
~68%
of documented custody incidents with known outcomes ended in blocked access — the owner, heir, or authorised party was unable to recover the funds.

Percentages above are calculated from the 484 incidents with a known outcome. 362 cases (42.8%) are classified as indeterminate — public documentation was insufficient to determine whether access was ultimately restored.

  ·    ·  
846
Observed incidents
484
Cases with known outcome
42.8%
Indeterminate (insufficient public documentation)
Outcome by stress condition
Blocked
Constrained
Survived
Indeterminate

Rates describe outcomes within documented incidents, not the probability of a given outcome in any individual case.

  ·    ·  

Outcome by custody system
Blocked
Constrained
Survived
Indeterminate
5 cases — insufficient for distribution
1 case — insufficient for distribution
4 cases — insufficient for distribution

Rates describe outcomes within documented incidents, not relative failure rates across custody types in the broader population.

  ·    ·  

Outcome by structural dependency
Blocked
Constrained
Survived
Indeterminate

A case may carry multiple dependency tags — rates reflect all cases where the dependency is present.

  ·    ·  

Structural patterns
Frequency of structural dependencies

Frequency reflects how often each dependency appears across cases.


Outcome by custody system across selected stress conditions

Outcome distribution for selected stress conditions, broken down by custody system type.

Software wallet
69% (90)
Hardware wallet (single key)
100% (5)
Software wallet
46% (159)
Hardware wallet (single key)
60% (9)
Software wallet
92% (115)
Hardware wallet (single key)
71% (14)

Custody type and stress condition are correlated in the archive — this is not a controlled comparison.

  ·    ·  

Observed recovery paths
Recovery success rate by path
83% (12 cases)
71% (17 cases)
63% (40 cases)
60% (72 cases)
60% (20 cases)
50% (18 cases)
44% (25 cases)
37% (102 cases)

Rates are calculated from cases where the path was attempted.

  ·    ·  

Most common recovery path by stress condition
Stress condition
Dominant path
% of cases
No viable path
59%
No viable path
36%
No viable path
35%
None attempted
3%

The dominant path is the most frequently documented path for that stress condition.

  ·    ·  

Outcome comparison across categories

These figures describe documented incidents in this archive.

Category A
vs
Category B
Stress condition: Coercion
Blocked
67.9%
Constrained
0.9%
Survived
15.2%
Indeterminate
16.1%
n=112 cases
Custody system: Exchange custody
Blocked
44.4%
Constrained
23.4%
Survived
4.0%
Indeterminate
28.2%
n=248 cases

Everything required may exist, but access still depends on context, coordination, and dependencies that can fail together under stress.

Start Bitcoin Custody Stress Test

$149 · 12-month access · Unlimited assessments

A 30-minute assessment that models how your Bitcoin custody setup behaves when assumptions fail, with reference documents for heirs and professionals to coordinate without you.

View example profile documents
Use or cite this dataset

Bitcoin Custody Incident Archive — CustodyStress

Source: custodystress.com/cases  ·  Coverage: 846 documented incidents, 2009–present  ·  Updated: Ongoing  ·  License: Free to reference and cite with attribution

Bitcoin Custody Incident Archive. CustodyStress, 2026. custodystress.com/cases
Terms guide
Survived
Access remained possible under the reported conditions.
Constrained
Access remained possible, but only with delay, dependence, or significant difficulty.
Blocked
Access was not possible under the reported conditions.
Indeterminate
There was not enough information to determine the outcome.
Survivability
The degree to which a custody system maintains the possibility of authorized recovery under stress.
Archive inclusion criteria

This archive documents cases where a legitimate owner, heir, or authorized party encountered barriers accessing or recovering Bitcoin due to a failure in the custody arrangement. The central question for inclusion is: did the custody structure fail a legitimate access or recovery attempt?

A case must satisfy all three of the following to be included:

  1. Legitimate access attempt. The person attempting to access or recover the Bitcoin was the owner, a designated heir, an executor, a legal authority, or another party with a legitimate claim — not a thief, attacker, or unauthorized third party.
  2. Custody structure failure. The failure was caused by a property of the custody arrangement — missing credentials, structural dependencies, documentation gaps, knowledge concentration, legal barriers, or institutional constraints — not market conditions, individual-level fraud or theft, or protocol-level issues. Platform-level failures that block legitimate user access are in scope regardless of their cause.
  3. Documentable outcome or access constraint. The case must have a stated or inferable outcome: access blocked, access constrained, access delayed, or access eventually achieved through a recovery path. Cases with entirely unknown outcomes are included only where the structural failure is documented and the constraint is unambiguous.
  • Owner death or incapacity — Bitcoin held in self-custody that becomes inaccessible to heirs or designated parties because credentials, documentation, or operational knowledge were not transferred
  • Passphrase loss — BIP39 passphrase forgotten or unavailable, blocking access to a funded wallet even where the seed phrase is present
  • Seed phrase or wallet backup unavailable — no independent recovery path existed or the backup was destroyed, lost, or never created
  • Device loss without independent backup — hardware wallet, phone, or computer lost or destroyed with no recovery path outside the device
  • Documentation absent or ambiguous — heirs or executors cannot determine that Bitcoin exists, which wallet holds it, or how to access it
  • Knowledge concentration — only one person knew the procedure, passphrase, or access method; that person is dead, incapacitated, or unreachable
  • Multisig quorum failure — a threshold signature arrangement cannot be completed because signers are unavailable, uncooperative, incapacitated, or have lost their keys
  • Legal authority / access mismatch — a court order, probate ruling, or power of attorney establishes legal entitlement but provides no technical path to access
  • Institutional custody barrier — exchange or platform hacks, insolvency, regulatory seizure, or operational failure that caused a access constraint or failure for legitimate users, whether temporary, prolonged, or permanent. The failure of the custodian to remain available or solvent is itself the in-scope event.
  • Forced relocation or geographic constraint — physical access to a device or location required for recovery is blocked by displacement, border restrictions, or political circumstances
  • Coercion — the holder was compelled under threat to transfer Bitcoin or disclose credentials during an access event
  • Hidden asset discovery — heirs or executors locate a wallet or account but cannot access it due to missing credentials or operational knowledge
  • Market losses, investment losses, yield scheme losses, or Ponzi scheme losses
  • Hacks or theft targeting an individual's personal security (phishing, SIM swap, social engineering, malware) where the custody architecture itself did not fail
  • Unauthorized transfers where the holder's custody system was not the cause of the failure
  • Ordinary transaction mistakes — wrong-address sends, fee errors, mistaken amounts
  • Protocol-level failures — cryptographic vulnerabilities, consensus bugs, firmware integrity failures
  • Deliberate burns or tribute burns
  • Cases where the stated loss is unverifiable and no structural custody failure is described

Cases are drawn from public sources including forum posts, news reporting, court documents, academic research, and direct submissions. Each case is reviewed against the inclusion criteria above before publication. Source material is retained and available on request for documented cases.

The archive is observational and descriptive. It does not attempt to document all Bitcoin custody failures — only those meeting the criteria above with sufficient documentation to describe the structural failure and its outcome.

Original text
Rate this translation
Your feedback will be used to help improve Google Translate