CustodyStress
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Part of the CustodyStress archive of observed Bitcoin custody incidents

Halving Cycle 3 (2017–2020)

The third halving cycle spans Bitcoin's first mainstream price spike and subsequent bear market. Vendor lockout and passphrase unavailability remained the dominant failure modes. Hardware wallet adoption grew, bringing a new class of passphrase-related failures as holders set passphrases they later forgot. The 2018–2019 bear market produced a wave of exchange closures.

206 cases from this period are included in this archive. Exchange and custodial custody failures account for 38% of cases. 65% of determinate cases resulted in a blocked outcome.

70
Blocked
16
Constrained
21
Survived
99
Indeterminate

80% of determinate cases resulted in blocked or constrained access.

206 observed cases
Blocked
70 (34%)
Constrained
16 (8%)
Survived
21 (10%)
Indeterminate
99 (48%)
Lost Final Word of Ledger Nano S 24-Word Seed: 110,000 Dogecoin Case
Hardware wallet (single key)
Indeterminate 2018
On March 8, 2018, a BitcoinTalk forum user identified as Ma1k reported losing the 24th word of a Ledger Nano S BIP39 recovery seed phrase. The loss occurred aft
Bitcoin Knots Wallet Access Lost After SSD Migration: wallet.dat Location Mismatch
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
In May 2018, an inexperienced Bitcoin user (mortamuerte) initiated blockchain synchronization using Bitcoin Knots, a Bitcoin Core fork, on a laptop SSD. Partway
QuadrigaCX Gerald Cotten Death: C$190M in Cold Storage Permanently Inaccessible
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
Gerald Cotten, 30, founded and operated QuadrigaCX as Canada's largest cryptocurrency exchange. He managed the platform's operations, customer support, and crit
QuadrigaCX Exchange Collapse: C$100,000 Withdrawal Never Processed
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
Eric Z., a QuadrigaCX customer, deposited C$5,000 into the Canadian cryptocurrency exchange around 2014 and grew his position to approximately C$125,000 through
Xitong Zou: QuadrigaCX Creditor During Exchange Collapse and Fraud
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
Xitong Zou was a customer of QuadrigaCX, a Canadian cryptocurrency exchange that collapsed in late 2018. Like thousands of other users, Zou had cryptocurrency h
Kleiman Estate v. Craig Wright: Bitcoin Access Blocked by Knowledge Concentration
Unknown custody system
Blocked 2018
David Kleiman, a computer forensics expert in Palm Beach County, Florida, died in April 2013. His brother Ira Kleiman later alleged that David and Craig Steven
Danny Aston Home Invasion: UK's First Documented Crypto-Targeted Physical Attack — 2018
Unknown custody system
Indeterminate 2018
On an unspecified date in 2018, four armed men invaded the Moulsford, Oxfordshire residence of cryptocurrency trader Danny Aston. The assault was motivated by a
Matthew Mellon's $193M XRP Estate: Cold Wallets, No Keys, No Plan
Hardware wallet (single key)
Constrained 2018
Matthew Mellon, a member of the prominent Mellon banking family, became a significant cryptocurrency investor in the mid-2010s. His $2 million investment in XRP
Cointed GmbH Exchange Collapse: Austria, 2018 — Customer Funds Disappeared
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
Cointed GmbH, founded in 2016 in Kufstein, Austria, operated as a regional cryptocurrency powerhouse: a custodial exchange, mining operation, and operator of on
Coincheck Exchange Hack: 523 Million NEM Stolen, User Withdrawals Frozen
Exchange custody
Constrained 2018
On January 26, 2018, Coincheck, a Tokyo-based cryptocurrency exchange, discovered that attackers had stolen approximately 523 million NEM tokens valued at $530
Coinrail Exchange Hack — $40 Million Altcoin Loss, Partial Recovery
Exchange custody
Constrained 2018
On June 10, 2018, Coinrail, a South Korean cryptocurrency exchange, publicly confirmed a security breach affecting its hot wallet infrastructure. Attackers gain
Cryptocurrency Traders Robbed at Gunpoint in Moulsford, Oxfordshire
Unknown custody system
Blocked 2018
Danny Aston and Amy Jay, cryptocurrency traders operating in the UK, were victims of armed robbery in Moulsford, Oxfordshire. The perpetrators held them at gunp
Bitcoin Core Wallet Passphrase Rejected: $400 USD Inaccessible
Software wallet
Blocked 2018
In September 2018, a Bitcoin Core user reported being locked out of their encrypted software wallet containing approximately $400 USD in Bitcoin. The wallet had
Electrum Wallet Lost to Laptop Hardware Failure: No Seed Phrase Backup
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
On October 12, 2018, a BitcoinTalk forum user identified as Chabole007 reported losing access to an Electrum software wallet after their laptop experienced hard
Recovered 12-Word Seed Phrase but Balance Shows Zero: Imported Address Problem
Software wallet
Blocked 2018
In September 2018, a Bitcoin holder attempted to recover wallet access after forgetting which software they had originally used. They obtained a 12-word recover
MultiBit Classic Password Lock: Recovery Through Backup Key File Import
Software wallet
Survived 2018
A BitcoinTalk user (cluuze130) deposited Bitcoin into MultiBit Classic approximately one year before attempting withdrawal in February 2018. At the time of depo
Mt. Gox Account Access Permanently Blocked Following Owner Death and Credential Reset
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
Mt. Gox ceased operations in February 2014 following the loss of approximately 850,000 Bitcoin. Users with dormant accounts on the platform faced an immediate c
Mobile Wallet Loss: Phone Format Destroys All Recovery Credentials
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2018
On April 22, 2018, BitcoinTalk forum user Calypso_Dame reported a critical custody access failure resulting from a mobile phone format operation. The user had r
BitcoinTalk User: Encrypted Wallet.dat Passphrase Lost, Recovery Deemed Infeasible
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
In January 2018, a BitcoinTalk forum user identified as moztec reported an access failure involving a wallet.dat file encrypted with Bitcoin Core. The user had
MapleChange Exit Scam: 919 Bitcoin Lost, CEO Identified as Glad Poenaru
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
MapleChange, a small Canadian cryptocurrency exchange, announced on October 28, 2018 that it had suffered a catastrophic hack. According to the exchange's Twitt
Facebook Mining Scam: $27,830 in Bitcoin Lost After Credential Compromise
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
A user new to Bitcoin was introduced to cryptocurrency via Facebook by an account claiming mining expertise. The contact offered to help the user purchase Bitco
Ledger Nano S Application Loss With Missing Seed Phrase Backup
Hardware wallet (single key)
Indeterminate 2018
On May 9, 2018, a BitcoinTalk Hardware Wallets forum user (bPatrick401) disclosed a custody access failure involving a Ledger Nano S device. The incident began
Encrypted Wallet, Forgotten Passphrase: Self-Custody Encryption Without Backup
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
On January 14, 2018, BitcoinTalk user AsJoshScreams posted a recovery plea for an encrypted cryptocurrency wallet. The user had encrypted their private key with
Bithumb $31 Million Hack — June 2018 Withdrawal Suspension
Exchange custody
Constrained 2018
Bithumb, one of South Korea's dominant cryptocurrency exchanges handling billions in daily trading volume, discovered a security breach on June 19, 2018. Intern
Elvis Cavalic and QuadrigaCX: C$15,000 Withdrawal Lost to Exchange Collapse
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
Elvis Cavalic of Calgary, Alberta was an active QuadrigaCX customer who had accumulated cryptocurrency holdings through trading on the platform. In October 2018
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Halving cycles
Terms guide
Survived
Access remained possible under the reported conditions.
Constrained
Access remained possible, but only with delay, dependence, or significant difficulty.
Blocked
Access was not possible under the reported conditions.
Indeterminate
There was not enough information to determine the outcome.
Survivability
The degree to which a custody system maintains the possibility of authorized recovery under stress.
Archive inclusion criteria

This archive documents cases where a legitimate owner, heir, or authorized party encountered barriers accessing or recovering Bitcoin due to a failure in the custody arrangement. The central question for inclusion is: did the custody structure fail a legitimate access or recovery attempt?

A case must satisfy all three of the following to be included:

  1. Legitimate access attempt. The person attempting to access or recover the Bitcoin was the owner, a designated heir, an executor, a legal authority, or another party with a legitimate claim — not a thief, attacker, or unauthorized third party.
  2. Custody structure failure. The failure was caused by a property of the custody arrangement — missing credentials, structural dependencies, documentation gaps, knowledge concentration, legal barriers, or institutional constraints — not market conditions, individual-level fraud or theft, or protocol-level issues. Platform-level failures that block legitimate user access are in scope regardless of their cause.
  3. Documentable outcome or access constraint. The case must have a stated or inferable outcome: access blocked, access constrained, access delayed, or access eventually achieved through a recovery path. Cases with entirely unknown outcomes are included only where the structural failure is documented and the constraint is unambiguous.
  • Owner death or incapacity — Bitcoin held in self-custody that becomes inaccessible to heirs or designated parties because credentials, documentation, or operational knowledge were not transferred
  • Passphrase loss — BIP39 passphrase forgotten or unavailable, blocking access to a funded wallet even where the seed phrase is present
  • Seed phrase or wallet backup unavailable — no independent recovery path existed or the backup was destroyed, lost, or never created
  • Device loss without independent backup — hardware wallet, phone, or computer lost or destroyed with no recovery path outside the device
  • Documentation absent or ambiguous — heirs or executors cannot determine that Bitcoin exists, which wallet holds it, or how to access it
  • Knowledge concentration — only one person knew the procedure, passphrase, or access method; that person is dead, incapacitated, or unreachable
  • Multisig quorum failure — a threshold signature arrangement cannot be completed because signers are unavailable, uncooperative, incapacitated, or have lost their keys
  • Legal authority / access mismatch — a court order, probate ruling, or power of attorney establishes legal entitlement but provides no technical path to access
  • Institutional custody barrier — exchange or platform hacks, insolvency, regulatory seizure, or operational failure that caused a access constraint or failure for legitimate users, whether temporary, prolonged, or permanent. The failure of the custodian to remain available or solvent is itself the in-scope event.
  • Forced relocation or geographic constraint — physical access to a device or location required for recovery is blocked by displacement, border restrictions, or political circumstances
  • Coercion — the holder was compelled under threat to transfer Bitcoin or disclose credentials during an access event
  • Hidden asset discovery — heirs or executors locate a wallet or account but cannot access it due to missing credentials or operational knowledge
  • Market losses, investment losses, yield scheme losses, or Ponzi scheme losses
  • Hacks or theft targeting an individual's personal security (phishing, SIM swap, social engineering, malware) where the custody architecture itself did not fail
  • Unauthorized transfers where the holder's custody system was not the cause of the failure
  • Ordinary transaction mistakes — wrong-address sends, fee errors, mistaken amounts
  • Protocol-level failures — cryptographic vulnerabilities, consensus bugs, firmware integrity failures
  • Deliberate burns or tribute burns
  • Cases where the stated loss is unverifiable and no structural custody failure is described

Cases are drawn from public sources including forum posts, news reporting, court documents, academic research, and direct submissions. Each case is reviewed against the inclusion criteria above before publication. Source material is retained and available on request for documented cases.

The archive is observational and descriptive. It does not attempt to document all Bitcoin custody failures — only those meeting the criteria above with sufficient documentation to describe the structural failure and its outcome.

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