CustodyStress
Archive › Halving cycles › Halving Cycle 3 (2017–2020)
Part of the CustodyStress archive of observed Bitcoin custody incidents

Halving Cycle 3 (2017–2020)

The third halving cycle spans Bitcoin's first mainstream price spike and subsequent bear market. Vendor lockout and passphrase unavailability remained the dominant failure modes. Hardware wallet adoption grew, bringing a new class of passphrase-related failures as holders set passphrases they later forgot. The 2018–2019 bear market produced a wave of exchange closures.

206 cases from this period are included in this archive. Exchange and custodial custody failures account for 38% of cases. 65% of determinate cases resulted in a blocked outcome.

70
Blocked
16
Constrained
21
Survived
99
Indeterminate

80% of determinate cases resulted in blocked or constrained access.

206 observed cases
Blocked
70 (34%)
Constrained
16 (8%)
Survived
21 (10%)
Indeterminate
99 (48%)
DragonEx Singapore Exchange Compromised by Lazarus Group — User Funds Stolen March 2019
Exchange custody
Constrained 2019
DragonEx, a Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange, suffered a critical security breach on March 24, 2019, when attackers gained access to internal systems and
Oslo Bitcoin Millionaire's Escape From Armed Home Invader (2019)
Hardware wallet (single key)
Survived 2019
In May 2019, a Bitcoin millionaire residing in Oslo, Norway became the target of an armed home invasion. The attacker confronted the victim at his apartment, bu
Lost Electrum Wallet Password: wallet.dat File Encrypted, No Backup Credential
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2019
In February 2019, a forum user identified as bitbemining posted a custody failure case involving an Electrum wallet. The user possessed the encrypted wallet.dat
BITPoint Exchange Hack — $23M Customer Cryptocurrency Stolen, July 2019
Exchange custody
Constrained 2019
On July 12, 2019, BITPoint, operated by Tokyo-listed Remixpoint Inc., discovered unauthorised outflows totalling approximately 3.5 billion yen ($32 million USD)
Electrum Seed Version 18 Password Recovery: btcrecover Incompatibility Resolved
Software wallet
Survived 2019
In December 2019, a BitcoinTalk user (red14159) discovered a wallet.dat file from an Electrum wallet they had lost access to approximately three years earlier.
Block.io Dashboard Access Failure: User Unable to Move BTC Despite Holding Private Keys
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2019
In September 2019, a Bitcoin user holding funds on Block.io encountered a critical access barrier. When attempting to log into the custodial wallet dashboard, t
MapleChange Exchange Collapse: $5M Missing, Hack Unverified, No Recovery
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
MapleChange, a Canadian cryptocurrency exchange, announced on October 28, 2018, that it had suffered a security breach resulting in the loss of approximately $5
Blockchain.com Wallet Zero Balance: Seed Phrase and Backup File Present, Funds Inaccessible
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2018
In late 2015, the user rory4ever created a Bitcoin wallet using Blockchain.info (the platform's name before rebranding to Blockchain.com) and deposited approxim
BitGrail Exchange Collapse: 17 Million NANO Stolen, 230,000 Users Frozen
Exchange custody
Blocked 2018
BitGrail, an Italian cryptocurrency exchange, announced on February 8, 2018 that approximately 17 million NANO tokens—valued at roughly $170 million at the time
Electrum Seed Phrase Mismatch: Valid Addresses, Missing Funds
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
In January 2018, forum user 'thenarog' encountered a nuanced custody failure involving an Electrum desktop wallet. The user held a wallet.dat backup file protec
Forgotten wallet.dat Password: 13.8 BTC Locked Since 2013
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
On 2 March 2018, a Bitcoin holder identified as fabriciofenenga posted to the Bitcoin Technical Support forum seeking password recovery assistance for a wallet.
Ledger Nano S: 23 of 24 Mnemonic Words with Passphrase, Missing Final Word
Hardware wallet with passphrase
Indeterminate 2018
In May 2018, a Ledger Nano S user accidentally wiped their device during testing and discovered they had retained 23 of 24 seed words, written down in order, pl
Computer Crash with wallet.dat Backup: Bitcoin Core Recovery Without Private Key Export
Software wallet
Survived 2018
In February 2018, a Bitcoin Core user experienced a total computer crash requiring complete system reinstallation. The user had previously used an Armory wallet
PIVX Encrypted Wallet Access Failure After System Update and Forced Shutdown
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
In May 2018, a user encrypted a PIVX wallet using PIVX Core version 3.1.0.2 on Windows 64-bit and confirmed the passphrase worked across multiple unlock cycles
131 BTC Inaccessible: Forgotten Wallet Password, No Recovery Mechanism
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
In December 2018, a BitcoinTalk user known as 'jackang' posted a public plea for help recovering access to a wallet containing 131 BTC. The wallet had been crea
Paper Wallet QR Code Case Mismatch: Single Character Locked Access for 2.5 Years
Software wallet
Survived 2018
Al Reno generated an offline paper wallet using bitaddress.org in August 2018, manually printing both public and private keys with QR codes to physical paper. H
Bitfinex Fiat Withdrawal Freeze: Crypto Capital Processing Delays October–November 2018
Exchange custody
Constrained 2018
Bitfinex paused fiat deposits in October 2018 and announced implementation of a new deposit system. The exchange had been routing USD withdrawals through Crypto
Bither Desktop Wallet Application Crash: 3-Year Recovery via Password Rediscovery
Software wallet
Survived 2018
Sygun created a Bither wallet in March 2018 holding approximately 0.019 BTC. At an unspecified point, the Bither application ceased launching entirely—double-cl
Corrupted 2011 Bitcoin Mining Wallet: File Recovery Attempted but Balance Unverifiable
Software wallet
Blocked 2018
In September 2018, a Bitcoin forum user discovered an old wallet.dat file originating from 2011 Bitcoin mining activity on his original hard drive. After a frie
Blockchain.info Wallet Access Lost After Signup—Recovery Phrase Known
Exchange custody
Indeterminate 2018
On March 16, 2018, a user with the handle ilovegambling created a new Blockchain.info wallet to receive Bitcoin from an online betting platform. The user record
College-Era Bitcoin Miner: Wallet.dat Recovered, But Addresses Empty
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
In early 2018, a Bitcoin Forum user identified as cdcine sought help recovering Bitcoin he had mined during his college years using Bitcoin Core version 0.3.23,
Bitcoin-Qt HD Wallet Change Address Lost to Deleted wallet.dat File
Software wallet
Blocked 2018
In May 2018, a BitcoinTalk user identified as Tuee22 performed a transaction sending 0.01 BTC to an online vendor using Bitcoin-Qt. The user had maintained a si
4 BTC Inaccessible in BIP38-Encrypted Paper Wallet After Passphrase Loss
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
In February 2018, a Bitcoin holder discovered that access to 4 BTC distributed across three BIP38-encrypted paper wallet addresses had become impossible due to
Ledger Nano S Seed Phrase Transcription Error: Duplicate Words at Positions 9 and 12
Hardware wallet (single key)
Indeterminate 2018
In September 2018, a BitcoinTalk user identified as efreeet reported a custody access failure on a Ledger Nano S hardware wallet. The user had originally genera
Corrupted wallet.dat Recovery from 2009 Hard Drive: Hex Search Method
Software wallet
Indeterminate 2018
In January 2018, a BitcoinTalk user reported discovering a hard drive containing a wallet.dat file created during 2009 Bitcoin mining. The drive had suffered si
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Halving cycles
Terms guide
Survived
Access remained possible under the reported conditions.
Constrained
Access remained possible, but only with delay, dependence, or significant difficulty.
Blocked
Access was not possible under the reported conditions.
Indeterminate
There was not enough information to determine the outcome.
Survivability
The degree to which a custody system maintains the possibility of authorized recovery under stress.
Archive inclusion criteria

This archive documents cases where a legitimate owner, heir, or authorized party encountered barriers accessing or recovering Bitcoin due to a failure in the custody arrangement. The central question for inclusion is: did the custody structure fail a legitimate access or recovery attempt?

A case must satisfy all three of the following to be included:

  1. Legitimate access attempt. The person attempting to access or recover the Bitcoin was the owner, a designated heir, an executor, a legal authority, or another party with a legitimate claim — not a thief, attacker, or unauthorized third party.
  2. Custody structure failure. The failure was caused by a property of the custody arrangement — missing credentials, structural dependencies, documentation gaps, knowledge concentration, legal barriers, or institutional constraints — not market conditions, individual-level fraud or theft, or protocol-level issues. Platform-level failures that block legitimate user access are in scope regardless of their cause.
  3. Documentable outcome or access constraint. The case must have a stated or inferable outcome: access blocked, access constrained, access delayed, or access eventually achieved through a recovery path. Cases with entirely unknown outcomes are included only where the structural failure is documented and the constraint is unambiguous.
  • Owner death or incapacity — Bitcoin held in self-custody that becomes inaccessible to heirs or designated parties because credentials, documentation, or operational knowledge were not transferred
  • Passphrase loss — BIP39 passphrase forgotten or unavailable, blocking access to a funded wallet even where the seed phrase is present
  • Seed phrase or wallet backup unavailable — no independent recovery path existed or the backup was destroyed, lost, or never created
  • Device loss without independent backup — hardware wallet, phone, or computer lost or destroyed with no recovery path outside the device
  • Documentation absent or ambiguous — heirs or executors cannot determine that Bitcoin exists, which wallet holds it, or how to access it
  • Knowledge concentration — only one person knew the procedure, passphrase, or access method; that person is dead, incapacitated, or unreachable
  • Multisig quorum failure — a threshold signature arrangement cannot be completed because signers are unavailable, uncooperative, incapacitated, or have lost their keys
  • Legal authority / access mismatch — a court order, probate ruling, or power of attorney establishes legal entitlement but provides no technical path to access
  • Institutional custody barrier — exchange or platform hacks, insolvency, regulatory seizure, or operational failure that caused a access constraint or failure for legitimate users, whether temporary, prolonged, or permanent. The failure of the custodian to remain available or solvent is itself the in-scope event.
  • Forced relocation or geographic constraint — physical access to a device or location required for recovery is blocked by displacement, border restrictions, or political circumstances
  • Coercion — the holder was compelled under threat to transfer Bitcoin or disclose credentials during an access event
  • Hidden asset discovery — heirs or executors locate a wallet or account but cannot access it due to missing credentials or operational knowledge
  • Market losses, investment losses, yield scheme losses, or Ponzi scheme losses
  • Hacks or theft targeting an individual's personal security (phishing, SIM swap, social engineering, malware) where the custody architecture itself did not fail
  • Unauthorized transfers where the holder's custody system was not the cause of the failure
  • Ordinary transaction mistakes — wrong-address sends, fee errors, mistaken amounts
  • Protocol-level failures — cryptographic vulnerabilities, consensus bugs, firmware integrity failures
  • Deliberate burns or tribute burns
  • Cases where the stated loss is unverifiable and no structural custody failure is described

Cases are drawn from public sources including forum posts, news reporting, court documents, academic research, and direct submissions. Each case is reviewed against the inclusion criteria above before publication. Source material is retained and available on request for documented cases.

The archive is observational and descriptive. It does not attempt to document all Bitcoin custody failures — only those meeting the criteria above with sufficient documentation to describe the structural failure and its outcome.