Part of the CustodyStress archive of observed Bitcoin custody incidents

Self-Custody vs Exchange Custody — Documented Outcomes

How documented outcomes differ between self-custody and exchange custody in the archive. Self-custody cases and exchange custody cases follow different failure mechanisms and produce different outcome distributions.

These figures describe observed outcome distributions within documented cases in this archive. The archive is not exhaustive — it documents cases with sufficient public information. The distribution reflects documented failures, not the full universe of Bitcoin custody arrangements.

Exchange custody (248 cases)

62% blocked 33% constrained 6% survived 70 indeterminate

Self-custody (all types) (515 cases)

69% blocked 3% constrained 28% survived 268 indeterminate

Hardware wallet (single key) (62 cases)

67% blocked 5% constrained 29% survived 20 indeterminate

Software wallet (431 cases)

70% blocked 3% constrained 26% survived 238 indeterminate

Exchange custody cases in this archive have a higher constrained recovery rate than self-custody cases, reflecting the availability of bankruptcy claims and support processes as partial recovery paths. Self-custody cases with blocked outcomes tend toward permanent loss — no institutional recovery mechanism exists when the key material is gone.

Full archive statistics Exchange blocked cases Software wallet blocked cases