Different People Believe Different Things About My Bitcoin

Conflicting Stakeholder Beliefs About Custody

This memo is published by CustodyStress, an independent Bitcoin custody stress test that produces reference documents for individuals, families, and professionals.

Sources of Divergent Beliefs

A bitcoin holder has stakeholders—family, advisors, potential heirs, perhaps business partners. Each stakeholder has beliefs about the bitcoin: how much exists, where it is held, how it can be accessed, who will receive it, whether it is secure. These beliefs may not match each other. Different people believe different things about my bitcoin describes a situation where no shared accurate understanding exists among those who have reason to care.

This memo looks at the phenomenon of belief divergence around bitcoin custody. The holder may be unaware that people hold contradictory beliefs. Each stakeholder may be unaware that others believe differently. The divergence remains hidden until circumstances force comparison, often after the holder's death when reconciliation is impossible.

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Sources of Divergent Beliefs

Divergent beliefs arise from different information reaching different people. The holder tells their spouse one thing and their attorney another. The spouse forms beliefs based on casual conversations; the attorney forms beliefs based on formal planning sessions. Each receives partial information and constructs understanding from what they received.

Time creates divergence as arrangements change. The holder described their setup to their child years ago. The setup has changed since then. The child's beliefs reflect the old arrangement; reality reflects the new one. Neither realizes the divergence because the updated information was never communicated.

Interpretation differences compound information differences. The holder says the bitcoin is "safe." The spouse interprets this as meaning it is in a secure location. The adult child interprets this as meaning it is accessible. The advisor interprets this as meaning it is properly documented. The same word creates different beliefs.

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What People Believe Differently About

Beliefs diverge about amounts. One person believes there are three bitcoin; another believes there are ten. One person believes the bitcoin is worth a significant portion of the estate; another believes it is trivial. These quantity beliefs shape expectations about inheritance and planning priorities.

Beliefs diverge about custody arrangements. One person believes the bitcoin is held by an exchange; another believes it is in self-custody. One believes there are multiple backups; another believes there is only one. The structural beliefs about how the bitcoin is held differ fundamentally.

Beliefs diverge about access. One person believes they know where the seed phrase is; another believes no seed phrase exists. One believes access will be straightforward; another believes access will be impossible. The beliefs about whether and how access can occur vary dramatically.

Beliefs diverge about inheritance. One person believes they will receive the bitcoin; another believes someone else will. One believes the bitcoin is covered by the will; another believes it passes outside the will. Expectations about who receives what contradict each other.

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The Holder's Role in Divergence

The holder is often the source of divergent beliefs through inconsistent communication. They tell different people different things at different times. They update some people and not others. They speak precisely to some and vaguely to others. The variations accumulate into divergence.

The holder may not realize they communicate inconsistently. They remember what they said but not to whom. They believe they have been clear because they have spoken about the bitcoin. They do not track whether each listener received the same information. The inconsistency is unintentional but real.

Privacy motivations create deliberate information restriction. The holder does not want everyone to know everything about their bitcoin. They share selectively, giving different information to different people for different purposes. This intentional variation serves privacy but creates divergence.

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How Beliefs Remain Unreconciled

Divergent beliefs persist because stakeholders rarely compare. The spouse and the attorney do not discuss what each believes about the bitcoin. The adult children do not compare their understandings with each other. Each believes what they believe without exposure to conflicting beliefs.

The holder serves as the hub connecting stakeholders. Communication flows through them, not between stakeholders. The spouse talks to the holder; the attorney talks to the holder; neither talks to each other about the bitcoin. The hub structure prevents belief comparison.

Social norms discourage comparison. Asking someone else what they believe about another person's bitcoin feels intrusive. Discussing someone's financial arrangements with third parties feels inappropriate. These norms keep stakeholders isolated in their beliefs even when comparison would be valuable.

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When Divergence Becomes Visible

Divergence becomes visible when stakeholders must coordinate. The holder dies. Family members, executor, and attorney must work together on the estate. Each brings their beliefs to the table. The beliefs do not match. Suddenly, the divergence that was hidden becomes impossible to ignore.

Visible divergence creates conflict. The spouse believed they knew where the bitcoin was; the executor believes the spouse knows nothing useful. The child believed they would inherit all the bitcoin; the sibling believed they would split it. The attorney believed there was a plan; the family believes there was none. Each party trusted their beliefs and now faces contradiction.

The holder is no longer available to reconcile divergent beliefs. They could have clarified. They could have confirmed. They could have explained what is actually true. Their death removes the only person who knew the full picture. The divergence becomes permanent because the reconciler is gone.

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Belief Divergence Versus Factual Reality

All divergent beliefs relate to a single factual reality. There is one actual custody arrangement. There is one actual amount. There is one actual access path. The divergent beliefs are attempts to describe this reality, but they cannot all be correct.

Some beliefs are closer to reality than others. The person who spoke with the holder most recently may have the most current understanding. The person who was most involved in planning may have the most detailed understanding. But "closer" is not "accurate"—even the best-informed stakeholder may have incomplete or incorrect beliefs.

Reality may not match any stakeholder's beliefs. Each person's understanding is partial. The actual arrangement may include elements no one fully grasps. When reality is finally examined—through attempted access or professional investigation—it may surprise everyone by matching no one's expectations.

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The Problem of Confident Incorrect Beliefs

Stakeholders may hold incorrect beliefs with high confidence. They are certain about things that are not true. The certainty comes from their relationship with the holder, their past conversations, their interpretation of what they were told. The confidence exists without accurate foundation.

Confident incorrect beliefs lead to problematic actions. Someone certain that the bitcoin is on an exchange may contact exchanges that do not have the bitcoin. Someone certain they know the location of the backup may search in the wrong place. Someone certain about inheritance may make financial plans based on false expectations.

Challenging confident beliefs creates interpersonal tension. The person with the incorrect belief resists contradiction. They know what they know. Being told their confident belief is wrong feels like being called a liar or a fool. The divergence is not just factual; it is emotional and relational.

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When All Beliefs Are Wrong

A particularly difficult scenario occurs when all divergent beliefs are incorrect. Each stakeholder believes something different, and none of them is right. The actual situation differs from everyone's understanding. This total divergence from reality leaves no one positioned to handle the bitcoin correctly.

Total belief failure can happen through cumulative miscommunication. The holder tried to explain but was misunderstood. They updated arrangements but did not communicate updates. They used terms that listeners interpreted differently. At each step, small divergences accumulated into total disconnection.

When everyone is wrong, discovering the truth requires starting fresh. No stakeholder's beliefs provide useful guidance. Investigation must proceed without reliance on what people think they know. The beliefs that seemed like starting points turn out to be obstacles.

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Impact on Estate Administration

Divergent beliefs complicate estate administration. The executor must work with stakeholders who disagree about basic facts. Efforts to locate or access bitcoin are undermined by conflicting directions. Family dynamics strain when inheritance expectations conflict.

The executor may struggle to determine which beliefs to trust. The spouse seems confident. The adult child seems confident. Their beliefs contradict. The executor cannot follow both sets of beliefs. They must choose or must investigate independently, either of which takes time and creates friction.

Professional advisors may hold beliefs that conflict with family beliefs. The attorney's understanding from planning sessions may differ from the family's understanding from informal conversations. The advisor's professional involvement does not guarantee accuracy; it only guarantees a different perspective that may also be incomplete.

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Summary

Different people believe different things about my bitcoin describes belief divergence among stakeholders. Family members, advisors, and potential heirs hold contradictory beliefs about amounts, custody arrangements, access methods, and inheritance expectations. These beliefs arise from inconsistent communication, time-delayed information, and interpretation differences.

Divergence remains hidden while the holder is alive because stakeholders rarely compare beliefs. The holder serves as the communication hub, and information flows through them rather than between stakeholders. Social norms further discourage comparison.

When the holder dies, divergence becomes visible and problematic. Stakeholders must coordinate but cannot agree on basic facts. The holder who could have reconciled beliefs is gone. The divergent beliefs that seemed like harmless misunderstandings become obstacles to handling the bitcoin. Different people believe different things about my bitcoin, and after death, no one can say who is right.

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System Context

Examining Bitcoin Custody Under Stress

Who Is Responsible for Bitcoin After Death

Secure Bitcoin for Non Technical Heirs

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